THE 2006-2007 NBA SEASON PREVIEWThe "IF" Season

Yes everyone, the time has finally come! The countdown is now at four days and it is now time for the best part of the year to begin: BASKETBALL!

Some history:

I love basketball. I have played it since I was five. No joke. I have watched it since then and have also played some sort of video game version of it for as long as they have made them (including the original NBA LIVE's and beyond). It is by far my favorite sport and it is also the only sport in which I am a diehard fan. The PHOENIX SUNS, my hometown team (didn't you know I was born in Arizona? Wow!), is the only team in all of sports that affects my mood. When they lose, I'm upset and when they win, I'm elated. I have, as a SUNS fan, gone through many years of upsettedness (yeah, I made that word up!). However, with the reacquisition of quite possibly our most athletic player (Amare) from injury, we are actually being picked by some people to win the NBA Championship.

But what do I, the huge fan, think of all this? I have to have an opinion right???

Yeah, I do. And what follows is going to be a sports lingo-filled entry predicting the next eight months of NBA activity. And that's all it is: a PREDICTION! Fans of my work (that's you dedicated readers out there) know of my failure as an MLB psychic (hey, I don't watch it ok!) and my competency as an NFL psychic (at least every week you do). So how should you feel towards the following: I don't care. This is another opportunity (much like displaying my football picks of the week) for me to attempt true sports writing. And I'm excited about it.

Indulge me.

And why the title of the "IF" season? Well this season, not unlike every other season, is filled with teams that are hinging on an "IF". You'll see. I'll throw in those "IF"s throughout. . .

So the format of this bad boy is as follows: I have ranked the teams 1-15 in their respective conferences. I will be starting in the East and showing each division separately in the order I think they will finish. In parentheses will be their overall rank in their conference. Got it? Then on to the West discussion. From there it will be the playoffs and my FINALS winner. Casual sports fans, get ready to have your world rocked! Because here comes my inaugural NBA SEASON PREVIEW!

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division:

New Jersey Nets (3)
The Nets are an interesting team. They have one of the best point guards in the league (Jason Kidd, still plugging along) and an explosive 2 and 3 (Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter, who is in the final year of his contract, an invitation to have a huge year). I am not impressed with their big men though. Add to that the acquisition of Eddie House from the Suns (fan's note: go ahead and take him - he's so hot/cold!) who subsequently went and got injured and is out for a couple months, and you have a team that can really only underachieve. The only reason they win their division is because it is such an awful division. They can win it all IF Vince, Jefferson, and Kidd all have career years.

Boston Celtics (8)
This is my first of three sleeper teams this year. Anytime you have Paul Pierce, one of the premiere players in the league today, you have a chane to win. I think Wally Szczerbiak is going to have a big year. I also think that Doc Rivers, their incompetent coach, could really ruin their season. But, I have faith in Paul. And in Paul I trust! They can make the playoffs IF Paul Pierce has an MVP-type season and he gets help from his supporting cast.

Toronto Raptors (11)
The Raptors got the misfortune of winning the lottery in a year where there was no clear-cut Number One pick (a la Lebron or next year's Greg Oden). So they selected Andrea Bargnani, a big guy straight out of Italy. He'll ride the bench and learn about the NBA for awhile and only prove to be marginally helpful this season. He may have potential, but he could just be another foreign flop. The acquisition of T.J. Ford was big for them, but him, Morris Peterson, and All-Star Chris Bosh cannot do it all. They can surprise everyone and make the playoffs in the next couple of years IF they get a lot better and a lot deeper (thru a trade of some kind).

Philadelphia 76ers (12)
Remember when these guys were playing the Lakers in the FINALS? Yeah, me too. I can't believe the turn this team took. Once a lock to make the playoffs, they have now become a stomping ground for mediocrity. Chris Webber is way past his prime and may only last two more seasons anyway. AI is still one of the best out there, but he has been getting no love. I'm sad for him that the 76ers didn't trade him like they wanted this offseason. If he had gone to the Celtics like people were saying, he coulda made that team a contender (can you imagine him and Pierce side-by-side?). Dunking sensation Andre Iguodala is ok but you only get two points for a dunk, and in a real game, you have to dribble. Uh oh. They can somehow make the playoffs IF Webber returns to his Kings-form and AI does his usual thing.

New York Knicks (13)
Poor, poor Spike Lee. His Knicks are so bad and yet, look at that roster! Marbury. Francis. Rose. All FORMER All-Stars. They will be better this year, though. Jared Jeffries is a solid player and he was a great pickup for them. I also really like Channing Frye (he's on my Fantasy team). He is there big man of the future. I still think that Isiah is gonna fail just like Larry Brown did and he will follow Brown out the door after the year is over. They can defy the odds and make the playoffs IF all of their shoot-first guards learn how to co-exist.

Southeast Division:

Miami Heat (2)
The defending champs are bringing out the same bunch from last year and hoping that no one else improved, I suppose. The problem is that D-Wade is tired (a FINALS run last year followed by the World Basketball Championships) and Shaq is not the dominating Shaq of old. I am saying he has a maximum of three years left. Jason Williams was never a starting PG in my opinion. I always thought he would be a good Sixth Man. I still think that once they get into May and the playoffs begin, the refs will allow the Heat to go further then they really should. D-Wade has begun getting Jordan calls and that's a scary thing, if you ask me. They can hoist the trophy for a second straight time IF Wade isn't completely fatigued by June and Shaq can still pick his legs up at that time.

Orlando Magic (6)
This is my second sleeper team. This is a strong, young core group led by Dwight Howard, a force underneath the basket. This youngling is ready to show what he is worth (although he certainly gave us a taste in the WBC). Grant Hill is rumored to be healthy. We'll see how long that lasts. The wildcard on this team is Darko. The much maligned second pick from 2003 (ahead of Carmelo and D-Wade) is finally getting an opportunity to show his stuff. However, I think it is backup PG Carlos Arroyo, the same guy who was torching the Americans this Summer on the national team from Puerto Rico, that will make a difference for this upstart team. They can go deep into the playoffs IF Howard is just that good and Hill stays healthy for an entire year.

Washington Wizards (7)
I'm just not expecting as much out of them this year. And sure, if All-Star (and truly awesome player) Gilbert Arenas read that, I'm sure it would motivate him to do even better. I just don't like his supporting cast. I've never thought Jamison was all that special and they are not deep at all, especially since they have lost Larry Hughes and Jared Jeffries in each of the last two off seasons respectively. I feel a letdown in our nation's capital. Sorry Travis and Josh (my cousins from Maryland who are big fans). I hope I'm wrong here. They can make the playoffs and win for a change IF Arenas is off-the-charts like usual and someone unexpected steps up big time.

Charlotte Bobcats (14)
The group of young guys (including rookie Adam Morrison and second year guys Raymond Felton and Sean May) will try to assist star Emeka Okafor (also a youngling) as best as they can. I think they are too young to do anything special. Maybe in four years. Maybe. O, and Morrison will not win Rookie of the Year. Just thought I'd get that out of the way here too. They can shock the world and make the playoffs IF Morrison is just that good and Okafor is productive in his return to the lineup.

Atlanta Hawks (15)
O the awful Hawks. As a fan, I have no pity whatsoever on Joe Johnson, the former SUNS guard who left us to be a one-man team in Atlanta. Instead of him, we now have Boris Diaw, the Most Improved Player from last year and a future All-Star. Instead, Johnson is the main guy on a team that I don't think can win 25 games. They're really bad. Plus, Marvin Williams, their one young bright spot, just went down with a wrist injury and is going to be out the first two months. That doesn't help either. They can win over 30 games IF Joe can play like he did last year and get a lot of help from Josh Smith.

Central Division:

Detroit Pistons (1)
Yes, they lost Big Ben Wallace in the off season. Yes, the new "Whining Rule" is a direct stab at Rasheed. Yes, the other teams are getting better and LeBron is breathing down their necks. But last time I checked, they still have four All-Stars in their starting five and a healthy Antonio McDyess coming off the bench. Chauncey Billups (my favorite non-SUNS player in the league) is still the second best PG in the league and Richard Hamilton is one of the most reliable players out there. I do not think they will win it all without Ben, but I still think they will have the best record in the East at season's end. However, they could win the championship again IF Nazr Mohammed provides a little something extra and (huge) acquisition Flip Murray comes off the bench and gives them what he gave the Cavs last year.

Chicago Bulls (4)
They are not this high because of Ben Wallace. Although Big Ben was a huge pickup, I don't think that he is going to be the key to win more games this year. Remember, he is a liability on the offensive end and makes Shaq look like Rick Barry at the free throw line. The maturation process of Kirk Hinrich this summer at the WBC and Ben Gordon turning into a late-game force is what makes this team so feared, I think. They also added P.J. Brown to bang around under the boards and rookie Tyrus Thomas could prove to be a big help at the end of games when Ben has to sit out because he can't hit a 15-foot shot. They can advance deep into the playoffs IF Big Ben proves he can play offense too and Hinrich and Gordon really did mature into smarter players.

Cleveland Cavaliers (5)
This is the problem with LeBron: He is not Superman. Yeah, sure, we are all witnesses or whatever, but I am waiting for the day when he comes down awkwardly on his ankle and is out for a couple weeks. Then how awesome is he? His supporting cast is no better this year (although Anderson Varejao has improved a lot) and even if he is the second coming of Jordan (which he is NOT), I don't see them winning the division. Playoffs are a different story. Once LBJ gets there, the refs will allow him to manipulate his way as long as he can. Along with Wade, he is getting Jordan calls, and they don't deserve it yet. I think LBJ will win the MVP this year, and it will be the first of many in his career. I don't think he'll have a ring, though. At least, not in Cleveland. They can advance further in the playoffs IF King James is incredible again in May and if either Larry Hughes or Drew Gooden give him some relief.

Milwaukee Bucks (9)
Although they still have Michael Redd, I think the loss of T.J. Ford will be what brings them out of the playoffs. A good PG is hard to find. Big men (like Charlie Villanueva, the guy they got for Ford) are interchangeable. Bogut is hurt to start the season and they are not that deep at all. My boy Steve Blake will get some minutes this year (much like he did last year in Portland) and they will make a push towards the 8th spot, but I think they will fail in their attempts. They can return to the playoffs, though, IF Mo Williams proves to be a good replacement for Ford.

Indiana Pacers (10)
A lot of analysts still like the Pacers to do well, and I can't see why. Besides Jermaine O' Neal, they do not have another All-Star caliber player on their lineup. While Al Harrington was a nice addition (you Laker fans wanted him, I know), the whole Stephen Jackson debacle is only going to hurt you and I have never thought Jamaal Tinsley was that good of a PG. Watch for backup guard Sarunas Jasikevicius to play some good minutes and surprise some people. They can make the playoffs IF there are no arrests of a Pacer from Halloween to Memorial Day.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Division:

San Antonio Spurs (2)
You know what's scary? Tim Duncan is rested. The Big Fundamental spent the off-season getting his feet healthy (he suffered from Plantar Fasciitis all of last year) and getting into better shape. Plus, he is still accompanied by Tony Parker (Mr. Eva Longoria to you), Manu Ginobili, and Bruce Bowen. Michael Finley is still on the bench waiting to hurt someone with a three-pointer in the waning minutes. They look scary this year, and no one is talking about them. I am. Look out for the Spurs. They can return to the FINALS and win it all IF Duncan is healthy all year and their age does not show by the end of the year.

Dallas Mavericks (3)
The defending Western Conference champions still have the most difficult man to guard (Dirk) and a supporting cast of great athletes (Terry, Howard, Stackhouse). The addition of Anthony Johnson was a big time deal, but I don't think they will be as powerful this year. The Spurs are better this year and the Mavs will once again not have home court against the Spurs in the second round. Another classic series will ensue, but I think the Spurs will win this one. However, the Mavs can return to the FINALS IF Dirk is the MVP and his supporting cast doesn't let him down this year (I'm talking to you Jason Terry).

Houston Rockets (6)
This team is loaded this year. Along with a supposed-healthy T-Mac and Yao, they added veterans Shane Battier and Bonzi Wells to their explosive lineup. They will have PG issues (Alston is not all that great) and their success will ultimately come down to T-Mac's back. As T-Mac goes, so goes the Rockets. They will finally make it back to the playoffs IF T-Mac stays healthy. That's it.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets (7)
My third sleeper team of the year is the one run by up-and-coming PG sensation Chris Paul. Wow, is this guy good! The guy is a Nash in the making, if I do say so myself! The addition of an aging Peja Stojakovic and an overrated Tyson Chandler can only help, and David West is going to have a huge year. You heard it here first! They can make the playoffs this year IF Paul is better than last year and Peja's veteran wiles lead them in the clutch.

Memphis Grizzlies (13)
O, how things change. One second Pau Gasol is leading Spain to a possible WBC win and the next he is down for the count with a foot/ankle injury and out til almost January. Ouch. They will be relying on young talent (Hakim Warrick, Rudy Gay, Mike Miller) to get them through the Pau-less times, but I am not sure that he will return to form even when he comes back. This year will be a failure for the once resurgent Grizz. They can return to the playoffs IF they can keep it together until Pau returns and he is 100% when he does come back.

Northwest Division:

Denver Nuggets (4)
They only win this division because of Carmelo. He showed me a lot this summer at the WBC and he looks like he could finally become the leader the Nuggets have been looking for. They still have Andre Miller and Kenyon Martin, although not of a great frame of mind, is still K-Mart. Marcus Camby is a beast under the hoop and itty bitty Earl Boykins always comes in and gives good minutes. They will beat up on the crappy division and do enough to win it outright, becoming the only team from their division to make the playoffs. They can emerge past the first round IF Carmelo becomes LBJ-like and carries the team on his shoulders.

Minnesota Timberwolves (9)
I feel so bad for Kevin Garnett. He has always been a favorite of mine because of his passion for the game. Well last year, he looked like he had lost that passion. Hopefully, the addition of Mike James (a solid PG) and rookie Randy Foye will renew his desire to win. I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but they could definitely do some damage to contenders at the end of the year. They could return to the playoffs once again IF Foye is better than he should be as a rookie and they make a trade to pick up some more help for KG.

Utah Jazz (10)
A lot of analysts have the Jazz making the playoffs by winning this division. Truthfully, it's anyone's division to win (except the next two teams ha ha!). The thing with Utah is that I don't buy into them. Sure Kirilenko is a great player, but Carlos Boozer has never impressed me, they have no real three-point shooters and their PG is still improving himself to make a name. I don't know. I'm just skeptical is all. Maybe next year, like the T-Wolves. They could make the playoffs (and only by winning the division) IF AK-47 stays healthy all year and someone steps up to help him.

Seattle Supersonics (14)
Ray Allen can only win so many games for a team. This team, which looks to be on its way out of Washington state (and probably headed to Oklahoma City), is a recipe for disaster. They have some nice young talent (Nick Collison, Luke Ridnour) but there is no way that this team will get near .500. It just won't happen. They could do the unthinkable and get to .500 IF Rashard Lewis finally proves to be a worthy sidekick to Ray Allen.

Portland Trailblazers (15)
There is not a whole lot to say about the Blazers except they always have young talent. And how do they continually have young talent? They are always at the top of the Lottery every year because they did so bad the previous year! They will challenge the Hawks for worst record in the Greg Oden sweepstakes (although a team featuring him, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Juan Dixon, and Jarrett Jack sounds kinda scary). They will win more than 25 games IF they move Brandon Roy (my pick for Rookie of the Year) into the starting lineup.

Pacific Division:

Phoenix Suns (1)
You can call me biased. You can call me a homer. You can say all sorts of things, but you cannot say that the SUNS are not great. Led by two-time MVP Steve Nash and Shawn Marion, the fast-paced Suns are welcoming back Amare Stoudemire back from his year-long absence. Also coming back this year is Kurt Thomas, a huge addition to the post game and on the defensive end. Another huge year is expected out of recently-signed-to-lengthy-contracts Boris Diaw and Leandro Barbosa, both of which played well in the WBC (especially Barbosa). It all revolves around Amare and how he returns though. And as a diehard fan, I can only hope that his jersey switch from 32 to 1 says it all! They can bring the first NBA championship ever back to Arizona IF Amare. That's it. Just one word is enough to explain it all.

Los Angeles Clippers (5)
A perennial constant in the playoffs, the Clippers are led by Elton Brand. This man impressed me so much last year in the playoff series against the Suns. He is a guaranteed 23 points, 12 rebounds guy. Every game. They are returning pretty much the same team with the addition of Suns playoff hero Tim Thomas, who in my opinion, will not be as big of a helper as they think. Without Nash, Tim Thomas will not flourish. They did lose Vladimir Radmanovic to the Lakers, but they can do without him. Look for them to again make it into the second round of the playoffs. They can go deeper than that IF Tim Thomas is heroic in a Clippers jersey too.

Los Angeles Lakers (8)
Kobe and Phil alone could make the playoffs. But only barely. Injuries have ravaged the Lakers (almost everyone on their team has missed time this preseason) so far, and that is never a good sign. I think Kobe will get them to the playoffs, but that's about it. Look for Luke Walton to have a much improved season (and be in the running for Most Improved Player) and also look for the benching of Smush Parker at PG for rookie Jordan Farmar. The kid looked good in preseason and I'm impressed. Let's leave it at that (I'm resenting the Suns for not getting him and having Nash train him). They could move deeper into the playoffs IF the injuries don't hurt them later in the season like they have early on.

Golden State Warriors (11)
Talent can only get you so far. And yes, they are led by a guard tandem that many teams would kill for (Baron Davis and Jason Richardson), but other than that, they have very little to offer. New coach Don Nelson (yeah, that Don Nelson) will try to get more out of his guys, but will fail like all of the recent Warriors coaches. Like Sports Illustrated said, "No matter how committed they are, they'll be sitting at home" for the playoffs. They could surprise us all IF they picked up another scorer before the trade deadline.

Sacramento Kings (12)
I do not buy into this team like many do. Bibby is hurt to start the season and Ron Artest can only do so much (although we know he can do more than just play ball!). I miss the Kings of old actually. Remember when it was Bibby/Christie/Peja/Webber and that whole group? That was fun. Yeah, this season will be constantly looking back at what used to be because it will be so rocky for the Kings. They could do the unthinkable and make the playoffs IF Artest is just that good and all his rapping and fighting distracted us all too much.

Well that's the individual team reports (o, and click on the team name to get linked to ESPN's team report - notice some of the differences). Onto the playoffs!

EASTERN CONFERENCE

FIRST ROUND
(1) Detroit over (8) Boston (4-1)
(2) Miami over (7) Washington (4-1)
(6) Orlando over (3) New Jersey (4-3)
(5) Cleveland over (4) Chicago (4-3)
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CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS
(1) Detroit over (5) Cleveland (4-2)
(2) Miami over (6) Orlando (4-2)
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CONFERENCE FINALS
(2) Miami over (1) Detroit (4-2)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

FIRST ROUND
(1) Phoenix over (8) L.A. Lakers (4-2)
(2) San Antonio over (7) New Orleans (4-1)
(3) Dallas over (6) Houston (4-3)
(5) L.A. Clippers over (4) Denver (4-1)
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CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS
(1) Phoenix over (5) L.A. Clippers (4-2)
(2) San Antonio over (3) Dallas (4-3)
__________________________________

CONFERENCE FINALS
(1) Phoenix over (2) San Antonio (4-3)

NBA FINALS

(1) Phoenix over (2) Miami (4-2)

THAT'S RIGHT!!!!!!!!! I say that my very own Phoenix Suns are going to win it all this year. They will finally be able to beat San Antonio on their way there, thus killing two birds with one stone. I'm so excited for this season and I hope that you enjoyed this thing here. I know it's long. I typed it :D

Thanks for reading it all. I appreciate it.

Much love and GO SUNS,

JUSTIN