The Oscar Show with Jon Stewart

It's the OSCARS baby! Tonight at 1900, Hollywood's Super Bowl will air on ABC. And I can't wait. I'm gonna have the poker guys over, and we're gonna play while it's on. Good stuff. . .

But, here are the predictions (and who I think should win!) that you have all been waiting for:

BEST PICTURE
What will win: I think BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is gonna win. And not unfortunately. I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees and I believe that this is the second best. It can win. I'm ok with that.
What should win (nominated): CRASH (without a doubt)
What should win (universally): CRASH (best movie of the year - just ask Roger Ebert)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Who will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, CAPOTE
Who should win (nominated): I have also seen all of these performances. ALL of them are top notch and could all be frontrunners in any other year. My personal vote is split between Terrence Howard (HUSTLE AND FLOW) and Joaquin Phoenix (WALK THE LINE). The edge goes to Howard in my mind because . . . well, just because!
Who should win (universally): Technically, all of them should win. They are all fantastic. Too bad they couldn't have 7 nominees - Russell Crowe could have been nominated for CINDERELLA MAN and Pierce Brosnan also for THE MATADOR.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Who will win: Reese Witherspoon, WALK THE LINE
Who should win (nominated): Reese Witherspoon
Who should win (universally): Yep, Reese. Go see WALK THE LINE. Now.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who will win: George Clooney, SYRIANA
Who should win (nominated): Either Matt Dillon (CRASH) or the ever-over-looked Paul Giamatti (CINDERELLA MAN). The edge goes to Dillon in my mind cuz there are just so many facets to that performance. Wow!
Who should win (universally): I think that Terrence Howard in CRASH was quite excellent and that Michael Caine should have been at least nominated for THE WEATHER MAN, but the overlooked Peter Sarsgaard performed quite amazingly in JARHEAD. I'm definitely buying that on Tuesday.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Who will win: Rachel Weisz, THE CONSTANT GARDENER
Who should win (nominated): Amy Adams, JUNEBUG
Who should win (universally): Although I loved CRASH, and I think that both Thandie Newton and Sandra Bullock could have been nominated, (and I wish the little girl could be nominated - she was tear-inducingly incredible!) Amy Adams' performance was just beyond comprehension. She's kooky. I can't describe it any other way. Either way, she's amazing!

BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Ang Lee, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Who should win (nominated): Steven Spielberg, MUNICH. Although I didn't give the film the highest grade, (B+) Spielberg showed us why he is the new "master of suspense" (Sorry Hitchcock)
Who should win (universally): I think that Spielberg was numero uno. Paul Haggis did a great job with CRASH, but I was more effected by its editing, which it better win for.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What will win: CRASH; Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco
What should win (nominated): CRASH, Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco
What should win (universally): If CRASH does not win here, there should be riots at the Kodak Theatre. But that's just my opinion. THE WEATHER MAN should have been nominated.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What will win: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
What should win (nominated): BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
What should win (universally): BROKEBACK - Have you seen how short the short stoy is?!?! It's incredible how they got such an incredible piece of written work out of that little amount of writing. Powerful dialogue, although very limited.

There you have it folks - The big awards for the night! It will definitely happen the way I said it would :D - - - Maybe not, but I would certainly be okay with being wrong if CRASH upset BROKEBACK for Best Picture. Fingers (and toes) crossed!

- - - "I'll be good."
- - - Jon Stewart, host of this year's ACADEMY AWARDS, this week in an interview. We hope so Jon. And I'm pulling for ya!

Thanking everyone who has made this possible,

JUSTIN